To: Friends of Tina Kotek
Date: October 19, 2022
OR Governor’s Race Poll Alert: Kotek Holds Narrow Lead
The race for Oregon Governor remains very tight, with Democrat Tina Kotek (40%) leading Republican Christine Drazan (38%) by just two points. Non-affiliated candidate Betsy Johnson lags far behind at 14%, and her support has been steadily dropping since August. The following are key findings from the poll of 800 likely voters:
- Tina’s lead is razor-thin. With just three weeks until the election, a two-point lead in a survey with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error is anything but safe.
- With Betsy Johnson’s support fading, Kotek is in a position to make further gains among Democrats. Johnson’s support has fallen to just 10% among Democrats, down from a high of 16%. Though Johnson still takes slightly more votes from Democrats than Republicans, this is an opportunity for Kotek to further consolidate Democrats and expand her narrow lead as Democrats see the threat of a red-state takeover.
Bottom Line: Tina has a narrow lead and opportunities to further expand her support. With a tight race this close to the election, we can take nothing for granted. Oregon has had competitive gubernatorial races for the past several cycles. But with the resources to deliver her message and draw a contrast with her opponents, Tina is in a good position to win.
GBAO conducted a survey of 800 likely voters in Oregon on behalf of Friends of Tina Kotek from October 10-13, 2022. The survey was conducted by telephone using live interviewers and text. The survey is subject to a 3.5 percentage point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.