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GBAO Polling Memo

To: Friends of Tina Kotek
From: GBAO
Date: October 19, 2022

OR Governor’s Race Poll Alert: Kotek Holds Narrow Lead 

The race for Oregon Governor remains very tight, with Democrat Tina Kotek (40%) leading  Republican Christine Drazan (38%) by just two points. Non-affiliated candidate Betsy Johnson  lags far behind at 14%, and her support has been steadily dropping since August. The following  are key findings from the poll of 800 likely voters: 

  • Tina’s lead is razor-thin. With just three weeks until the election, a two-point lead in a  survey with a 3.5 percentage point margin of error is anything but safe.  
  • With Betsy Johnson’s support fading, Kotek is in a position to make further gains  among Democrats. Johnson’s support has fallen to just 10% among Democrats, down  from a high of 16%. Though Johnson still takes slightly more votes from Democrats than  Republicans, this is an opportunity for Kotek to further consolidate Democrats and  expand her narrow lead as Democrats see the threat of a red-state takeover.  

Bottom Line: Tina has a narrow lead and opportunities to further expand her support. With a  tight race this close to the election, we can take nothing for granted. Oregon has had  competitive gubernatorial races for the past several cycles. But with the resources to deliver her  message and draw a contrast with her opponents, Tina is in a good position to win. 


GBAO conducted a survey of 800 likely voters in Oregon on behalf of Friends of Tina Kotek  from October 10-13, 2022. The survey was conducted by telephone using live interviewers and  text. The survey is subject to a 3.5 percentage point margin of error at the 95% confidence level.

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