To: Interested Parties
From: Meghan Cavanaugh, Campaign Manager
Date: October 11, 2022
Re: As Race Solidifies into Two-Way Contest, Drazan Will Prove Too Right-Wing for Oregon
Election Day is four weeks from today, and national attention has turned to the Oregon Governor’s race. With non-affiliated candidate Betsy Johnson consistently dropping in the polls, the race has now solidified into a two-way contest between two former state legislators: Democrat Tina Kotek, former House Speaker, and Republican Christine Drazan, former House Republican Leader.
Polling shows a tight, two-way race – but voters are just tuning in
Publicly-available polling has consistently shown that Kotek and Drazan are in a statistical tie, with Johnson trailing far behind the two leading candidates.
Analysts at FiveThirtyEight now give unaffiliated conservative Betsy Johnson a less than 1 in 100 chance of winning. Speculation indicates this is likely why Johnson’s largest single donor defected last week and threw his support to the Republican.
Now that Johnson is no longer viewed as having a real chance of winning, Oregonians are waking up to the very real threat of a red wave in Oregon.
As voters begin tuning in to the two-way race, Drazan’s right-wing record of supporting abortion bans, sponsoring legislation that could jail abortion providers, ties to violent extremists, and opposition to environmental protections will be deal breakers for many moderate and swing voters in Oregon.
National Republicans are launching mis-leading attacks against Tina, but voters will learn the reality is that Tina called for a homelessness state of emergency almost three years ago, but Representative Christine Drazan literally walked off the job, blocking millions of dollars for emergency shelters. And during the pandemic, she sided with the big banks – voting against protecting families from eviction and foreclosure.
Drazan is also pledging to cut funding for mental health, addiction services, and public schools – standard Republican positions that Oregon voters have rejected for decades.
Two very different candidates for governor
The contrasts between the two candidates are crystal clear. On issues ranging from reproductive freedom to environmental protection to workers’ rights to standing up to extremism, Tina Kotek is the only candidate for governor in line with mainstream values of the Oregon electorate.
As voters learn about these major differences, momentum will shift to Kotek, who is in line with the majority of Oregonians, while Drazan is severely out-of-touch.
- According to DHM Research, fully 65% of Oregon voters describe themselves as pro-choice. Tina Kotek is pro-choice and passed the country’s strongest reproductive health care law. Representative Drazan is backed by anti-choice organizations that oppose common forms of birth control and abortion, even in cases of rape an incest. Drazan personally sponsored a bill in 2019 and 2020 that could jail doctors who provide abortion services.
- In research conducted by FM3 Research on behalf of Oregon Alliance for Gun Safety, 8 in 10 Oregon voters support requiring a completed background check on all gun sales. Tina Kotek stood up to the gun lobby and passed comprehensive background checks, a red flag law and limits on firearms on school grounds. Representative Drazan opposed every gun safety law that came across her desk while serving in the legislature and has an “A” rating from the NRA.
- Recent polling commissioned by The Oregonian indicates that homelessness is the top policy concern of Oregon voters. Tina Kotek has been sounding the alarm about our housing crisis for years. In January 2020, Tina called for a homelessness state of emergency and brought forward $120 million for homeless shelters and affordable housing projects, but Representative Drazan led Republicans to walk off the job, killing nearly every bill that session – including the homelessness relief package.
- While Tina Kotek has stood up to protect our democracy and build trust in our elections process, Representative Drazan is campaigning with a far-right militia leader, taking money from a bankroller of one of the main organizers of the Jan. 6 rally, and supporting a Q-Anon conspiracy theorist and election-denier who is running to represent Oregon in the U.S. Senate.
Closing game: Drive up turnout and show the contrast
With 2.9 million voters now registered to vote in Oregon, observers expect over 2 million ballots to be cast in the November election. New rules, in place now for the first Oregon general election, will allow ballots that are postmarked by Election Day to be counted if they arrive at election offices up to 7 days after Nov. 8.
Democrats in Oregon, known for running sophisticated voter turnout programs, have set up a massive Get Out The Vote operation to ensure Oregon voters know how to return their ballot either in the mail or at a dropbox. And the Tina Kotek campaign has made plans for Tina to travel the state, meeting with voters for the final weeks of the election. While recent Oregon governor races have been closely contested, the last time Oregon voters elected a Republican governor was 40 years ago, during President Reagan’s first term.
This voter turnout operation, combined with an advertising campaign that exposes Representative Drazan’s deeply out-of-touch views and ties to the extreme right, will put Tina Kotek in a position for a strong finish and victory in the November election.